Saturday, February 25th, 2017
On a recent episode of the Accidental Tech Podcast, the hosts discussed the future of computing. You can also read the blog post on the same subject that Marco Arment wrote here, which of course does not represent the viewpoints of the other two hosts. Although they were discussing the “future of computing”, more narrowly speaking their interest was on the future of programming and the creative industry, which have more specialized needs around file manipulation, large screens, and ergonomics.
The discussion centered on whether the iPad and iOS in general will extend itself to also include these needs, or whether the Mac and MacOS will continue to serve those needs and begin to more closely approximate iOS. It’s a good discussion and worth listening to.
But here I want to unpack a bit more about how computing is defined, and revisit some historical ideas about computing’s future. I like to think that there are two definitions of “computing”, one narrow and one general.
The narrow definition is rooted in the past and consists of equating computing with receiving input and producing output. First the input was physical cards, then a command line using a keyboard, then a GUI using a keyboard and a mouse, then touch. First the output was printouts, then text on a screen, then graphics, and then touchable graphics. Computing was programming and work that had a similar flow of input and output: word processing, data entry, and creative endeavors.
The general definition is rooted in the future, but is best summarized by Steve Jobs’ vision of the computer being a “bicycle for the mind.” In this sense computing is an accelerant of human capabilities along any number of axes. This definition doesn’t constrain itself to the form factor or technical capabilities of the moment, nor does it make computing “stuck to its knitting” of input-output work. It sees past that and envisions the exponential acceleration afforded by embedding computational power in any dimension of human life, whether it be cognitive, communicative, emotional, or physical. Computing is an evolutionary leap that changes the lifeforms of those beings that would use it; not a second skin, nor a bionic extension, but a new entity entirely.
The desktop form factor and OS (with keyboard and mouse input) might be the best one we have or can envision currently for that first, narrow definition of computing. But that second, general definition swallows up all discussion of form factors and interfaces. It is all encompassing, and charges through any outlet available to it. This is why I believe the “future of computing” is really lots of computers: on desks, in laps, in pockets, on wrists, in ears, in your eyes, in cars, etc. (and this is setting aside for the moment the Internet of Things and all the little places where compute power and networking might be embedded, but where there is no direct human interface). I’m not saying this future is necessarily a good future, just where things are headed.
This isn’t a terribly original prognostication. Mark Weiser spelled it out already in 1991. But it’s worth remembering, from time to time.
Taking a step further into the future, you can see all these “computers” really being just interfaces to a centralized memory in the cloud or what have you. In a sense we are already there. We just haven’t discovered and explored all the interfaces that will be available to us in the future